Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

(4:15) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.15 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model