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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 44 for 1 yard (3-D.James).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.61 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model