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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.18 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP