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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP