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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model