Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

(5:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 28-K.Vidal [91-E.Oliver].

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP