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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model