4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.52 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model