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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to BUF 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 34 for 8 yards (32-K.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model