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Tennessee Titans

0-3 HC Robert Saleh
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New York Giants

2-1 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

TEN
29.2%
NYG
70.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Jameis Winston (NYG) -0.067 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.140 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Jameis Winston in place of Jaxson Dart)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19 12–26
–
NYG 25 18–32
Projected margin: NYG by 6 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

TEN

Cordale Flott CB Questionable Quadricep
Tyjae Spears RB Questionable Ankle

NYG

Brian Burns LB Questionable Ankle
Deonte Banks CB Questionable Calf
Tyler Nubin S Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 7
–
NYG 12

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:37 FG NYG (6:37) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. TEN 0 – NYG 3
  • Q2 04:53 FG NYG (4:53) 34-D.Zvada 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. TEN 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYG (:03) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. TEN 0 – NYG 9
  • Q3 07:00 FG NYG (7:00) 34-D.Zvada 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. TEN 0 – NYG 12
  • Q4 05:39 TD TEN (5:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG-12-C.Hood was injured during the play. TEN 6 – NYG 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:59) 3-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 91%

    (6:37) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:19) 3-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to NYG 5, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:53) 15-J.Stout punts 43 yards to TEN 46, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike to TEN 47 for 1 yard (28-E.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 25%

    (1:20) 3-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to NYG 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 18 for 7 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:50) 15-J.Stout punts 74 yards to TEN 8, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike to TEN 27 for 19 yards (52-A.Reese). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19. Penalty on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:08) 3-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NYG 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 47 for 5 yards (56-T.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (4:53) 34-D.Zvada 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:05) 3-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Robinson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:34) 15-J.Stout punts 54 yards to TEN 33, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 47 for 14 yards (29-T.Tracy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 52%

    (:46) 6-J.Slye 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (7:00) 34-D.Zvada 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 84-G.Helm [49-T.Edmunds].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:55) 15-J.Stout punts 64 yards to TEN 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 18. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 12 yards (58-B.Mann). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 18.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (3:12) 15-J.Stout punts 38 yards to TEN 8, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. PENALTY on NYG-28-E.Campbell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 8.

    See the full breakdown →