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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 7

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 84-G.Helm [49-T.Edmunds].

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model