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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 3-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model