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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 89

New York Giants 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 15-J.Stout punts 43 yards to TEN 46, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike to TEN 47 for 1 yard (28-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.80 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP