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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 3-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model