Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 85

New York Giants 12 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 15-J.Stout punts 64 yards to TEN 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 18. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 12 yards (58-B.Mann). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model