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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 9

New York Giants 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 34-D.Zvada 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model