4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:46) 6-J.Slye 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.53 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model