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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 21

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.03 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP