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Las Vegas Raiders

3-0 HC Klint Kubliak
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

1-2 HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:25 ET Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LV
29.1%
NO
70.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (LV): +0.000 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LV 18 11–25
–
NO 26 19–33
Projected margin: NO by 8 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

LV

Treydan Stukes S Out Concussion
Kwity Paye DE Questionable Illness
Aidan O'Connell QB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Brock Bowers TE Questionable Knee

NO

Barion Brown WR Out Hamstring
Christen Miller DT Out Toe
Martin Emerson CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 35
–
NO 27

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:39 FG LV (7:39) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 00:54 TD NO (:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 11:30 FG LV (11:30) 14-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – NO 6
  • Q2 05:49 TD LV (5:49) 66-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 12 – NO 6
  • Q2 01:57 TD NO (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – NO 12
  • Q2 00:04 FG LV (:04) 14-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – NO 13
  • Q3 06:44 TD NO (6:44) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. LV 16 – NO 19
  • Q3 05:54 TD NO (5:54) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – NO 26
  • Q3 03:29 TD LV (3:29) 4-M.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (21-J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-M.Washington right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 22 – NO 27
  • Q4 09:27 TD LV (9:27) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 28 – NO 27
  • Q4 06:28 TD LV (6:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 34 – NO 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:14) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

    (7:39) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (11:30) 14-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:39) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Benson ran ob at LV 47 for 13 yards (38-J.Price).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:37) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 38-J.Price.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 43%

    (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:47) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to NO 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 38-J.Price to NO 39 for 11 yards (93-P.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 14 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:44) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →