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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 18

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 14-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model