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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model