Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

(9:39) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to LV 34, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 19-M.Benson ran ob at LV 47 for 13 yards (38-J.Price).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model