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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 38-J.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model