Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 90

Las Vegas Raiders 22 – New Orleans Saints 27

(1:47) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to NO 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 38-J.Price to NO 39 for 11 yards (93-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.59 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model