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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 48

New Orleans Saints 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 22

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to LV 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model