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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 35

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.05 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model