Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 35 – New Orleans Saints 27

(1:44) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.69 EP
75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -2.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model