4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 14-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.47 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model