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Washington Commanders

1-4-1 HC Dan Quinn
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2027-01-03 · 13:00 ET EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville US ❓ Unknown

Win Probability

WAS
23.0%
JAX
77.0%
❓ Unknown

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.289 vs Jayden Daniels (WAS) -0.001 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19 12–26
–
JAX 30 23–37
Projected margin: JAX by 11 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

WAS

No players on the report.

JAX

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

Not played yet.