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New York Jets

1-3 HC Aaron Glenn
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

3-1 HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
20.4%
CHI
79.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Case Keenum (CHI) -0.126 vs Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.078 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19 12–26
–
CHI 27 20–34
Projected margin: CHI by 8 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYJ

Dylan Parham G Out Knee
Breece Hall RB Out Quadricep
Adonai Mitchell WR Out Finger
Francisco Mauigoa LB Out Quadricep
Mason Taylor TE Out Thumb
Kingsley Enagbare DE Questionable Knee
Kenyon Sadiq TE Questionable Back

CHI

Braxton Jones T Out Knee
Kyler Gordon CB Out Calf
Noah Sewell LB Out Achilles
Caleb Williams QB Out Hamstring
Shemar Turner DE Out Knee
Cam Lewis S Doubtful Hip

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 12
–
CHI 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:27 TD CHI (:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 08:20 FG NYJ (8:20) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 3 – CHI 7
  • Q2 02:32 FG CHI (2:32) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NYJ 3 – CHI 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG CHI (:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NYJ 3 – CHI 13
  • Q3 07:05 FG NYJ (7:05) 19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 6 – CHI 13
  • Q3 02:29 TD CHI (2:29) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – CHI 19
  • Q4 10:04 FG CHI (10:04) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NYJ 6 – CHI 23
  • Q4 09:25 TD NYJ (9:25) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 18-I.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.van den Berg]. NYJ 12 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (9:14) 4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 60 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 8 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 92%

    (2:56) 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (8:20) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 97%

    (2:32) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:51) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%

    (9:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CHI 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-84-M.McClain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (7:05) 19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (10:04) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →