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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 1

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +4.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +1.34 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth +0.10 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model