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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 41

New York Jets 3 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CHI 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-84-M.McClain.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model