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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 95

New York Jets 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 60 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 8 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.83 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 95, worth -5.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 53, worth -3.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model