Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 62

New York Jets 6 – Chicago Bears 20

(1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model