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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 18

New York Jets 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 18, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model