4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 12

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.27 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP