4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 3

Chicago Bears 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP