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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 12

New York Jets 3 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model