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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 12

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model