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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 1
Chicago Bears 0 – New York Jets 0
What Actually Happened
(:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.65 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
- 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +1.22 EP
KICK
+2.25 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT
+0.62 EP
- New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
