Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 65

New York Jets 3 – Chicago Bears 10

(1:51) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.63 EP
53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model