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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 21

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.74 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model