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Arizona Cardinals

1-3 HC Jonathan Gannon
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New York Giants

3-1 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ARI
37.8%
NYG
62.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Jameis Winston (NYG) -0.071 vs Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.009 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22 15–29
–
NYG 25 18–32
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

ARI

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Back
Josh Sweat LB Questionable Not injury related - resting player

NYG

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 24
–
NYG 36

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:12 TD ARI (11:12) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 06:40 FG NYG (6:40) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. ARI 7 – NYG 3
  • Q1 03:12 TD ARI (3:12) 22-T.Allgeier left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – NYG 3
  • Q2 15:00 FG NYG (15:00) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. ARI 14 – NYG 6
  • Q2 04:36 TD NYG (4:36) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – NYG 12
  • Q2 02:28 TD NYG (2:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Stills]. ARI 14 – NYG 18
  • Q2 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 38-C.Ryland 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 17 – NYG 19
  • Q3 07:24 TD ARI (7:24) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 84-E.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – NYG 19
  • Q3 01:48 TD NYG (1:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – NYG 25
  • Q4 02:16 FG NYG (2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. ARI 24 – NYG 30
  • Q4 00:11 TD NYG (:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – NYG 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 91%

    (6:40) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

    (15:00) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:09) 15-J.Stout punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-58-B.Mann. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 27 for 12 yards (31-N.Jones; 41-M.McFadden).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 44 for no gain (86-J.Brooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones to NYG 16 for 6 yards (80-S.Fehoko). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones ran ob at NYG 33 for 23 yards (12-B.Gillikin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (6:13) 15-J.Stout punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-31-N.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:53) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to 50, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 71%

    (2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →