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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 34

New York Giants 27 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.91 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model