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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 63

New York Giants 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 15-J.Stout punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-58-B.Mann. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 27 for 12 yards (31-N.Jones; 41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model