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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 24 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones ran ob at NYG 33 for 23 yards (12-B.Gillikin).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model