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Denver Broncos

2-2 HC Sean Payton
@
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San Francisco 49ers

4-0 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:25 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DEN
37.1%
SF
62.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.248 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22 15–29
–
SF 24 17–31
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

DEN

Dondrea Tillman LB Out Hamstring

SF

Nick Bosa DE Out Knee
Mykel Williams DE Out Knee
James Thompson Jr. DT Out Ankle
Mike Evans WR Questionable Ribs
Dre Greenlaw LB Questionable Quadricep
Keion White DE Questionable Hamstring
Jaden Dugger LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
SF 24

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:48 FG DEN (1:48) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 3 – SF 0
  • Q2 01:38 FG SF (1:38) 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – SF 3
  • Q3 04:22 TD SF (4:22) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – SF 9
  • Q4 14:12 FG DEN (14:12) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 6 – SF 10
  • Q4 08:55 TD SF (8:55) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – SF 16
  • Q4 04:10 TD DEN (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – SF 17
  • Q4 02:25 TD SF (2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:17) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:38) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (1:48) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 74%

    (14:30) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:43) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to SF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:36) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

    (5:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (1:38) 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to SF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:05) 15-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%

    (7:24) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%

    (14:12) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to SF 45 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 40 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%

    (1:18) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →