Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 47

Denver Broncos 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.46 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP

KICK -0.98 EP

42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
58% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model