Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 63

Denver Broncos 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(14:17) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.22 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model