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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 51

Denver Broncos 14 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to SF 45 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.61 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model